WindRock - Displaying items by tag: Geopolitical Events

The Khashoggi Murder: Reasons and Repercussions

Published in Podcasts
Tuesday, 04 December 2018
The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi exceeds other political assassinations not only through its brazenness, but also in the wealth of collected evidence.  Despite receiving mainstream media attention, the reasons for the Khashoggi killing are often poorly described and the repercussion are rarely discussed.

WindRock interviews Eric Margolis, award-winning syndicated columnist and war correspondent.  Mr. Margolis discusses:

  • Why the Turks are slowly releasing evidence;
  • How this may affect the viability of Saudi Arabia’s current de facto ruler, the crown prince;
  • Why Saudi Arabia’s regime appears to receive unconditional support from the U.S.;
  • What is the likelihood of a future U.S.-Saudi war with Iran.

 December, 2018

 




Additional Info

U.S. and North Korean relations worsen with each missile test and tweet to the point where military action is openly discussed by U.S. officials.  Meanwhile, bold moves by the Saudi Crown Prince have divided the Saudi royal family and agitated segments of the populace.
 
Open war with North Korea or internal turmoil for Saudi Arabia has profound social, economic, and financial implications worldwide.  WindRock interviews Eric Margolis, award-winning syndicated columnist and war correspondent.
 
Mr. Margolis discusses: how the U.S. miscalculated Chinese motives and influence over North Korea; what may trigger open war between the U.S. and North Korea; why a U.S. first strike is possible even without Congressional approval; and which missteps by the Saudi Crown Prince have dramatically increased the likelihood of a rebellion..  December 2017.





Additional Info

U.S. and Russian relations are at all-time, post-cold war lows with the recent American cruise missile strike in Syria.  Meanwhile, the U.S. relationship with China is severely strained due to China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea and with North Korea’s continued nuclear and ballistic missile development.

Could any of these geopolitical hot spots result in war?

WindRock interviews Eric Margolis, award-winning syndicated columnist and war correspondent.  Mr. Margolis discusses: how the U.S. contributed to the Syrian civil war and its current policy predicament; what the U.S. can do to de-escalate tensions with North Korea and counter their rising threat; and why China aggressively asserts its claims on the South China Sea.  April 2017.

 




Additional Info

June, 2016

Based on the torrent of emailed “analyses” we have received, wealth managers appear to have universally recommended inaction both before (because they did not expect it) and after Brexit (because they did not know what to do).  Despite one of the greatest one-day worldwide equity market selloffs in history, their advice was to take no action.  Apparently, no matter what the event or the depths to which equity indices sink, their advice has always been the same: stay the course.  The strategy of holding positions in the hope of eventually recouping losses has worked.  But hope is not a plan, and one day, hope will run out.

Unlike most previous financial crises, the Brexit saga arrives in an era of systemic risks across world economies and financial markets.  With systemic risk, the idea of “diversifying” across equity markets for protection fails as investors flee most markets during severe turmoil.  And given the unbridled expansion of debt and money since the 2008 financial crisis, we believe systemic risks abound.

Will Brexit be the catalyst to unleash such systemic risks and drive down worldwide equity markets?  We do not know, but it is possible.  With equity valuations in the developing world near record-high levels, stock market analyst John Hussman believes a negative change to investor sentiment alone may trigger a downturn.  Many other experts likewise believe Brexit marks an important psychological turning point:

This is the worst period I recall since I’ve been in public service.  There’s nothing like it, including the crisis. (recalling the stock market “Black Monday” crash in 1987)
- Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve Chairman

This is big because it’s at the time when the central banks have lost their power . . . It’s the beginning of the end of central bank power and it’s the beginning of the end of the European Union.
- Gerald Celente, publisher of the Trends Journal

There’s a bear market in confidence in market manipulators, policy makers, central bankers and politicians broadly.  There’s a bear market in confidence in planning.
- Jeff Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer of Doubleline Capital

Investors may be able to protect themselves from systemic risk by owning investments which fundamentally differ from traditional equities. Investments such as farmland, residential rental real estate, secured private lending, and precious metals may not only protect the value of portfolios, but may also allow investors to profit from financial crises.  Even long-term U.S. Treasury bonds may help (temporarily) as investors seek “safe havens.”  The year-to-date financial performance of some of these investment categories is especially insightful (through June 28, 2016 according to Morningstar).


If Brexit does not act as a catalyst, plenty of other events may trigger a worldwide, severe, and prolonged downturn in financial markets.  It could be the collapse of a European bank, a recession in the U.S., or a currency crisis in Asia.  It could be these, or to quote former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, one of many “unknown unknowns.”  It is difficult to predict which snowflake starts the avalanche.

We admit we did not foresee Britain leaving the European Union, but it did not matter as WindRock builds portfolios to withstand systemic risk regardless as to the catalyst.  Given today’s world of insignificant or negative interest rates, record debt levels, and unprecedented money printing, all investors should consider systemic risk and, unlike the advice of some wealth managers, take action.

 

Additional Info

The Real Danger to U.S. Investors from the China Meltdown

Published in Podcasts
Wednesday, 02 September 2015

Dawn Bennett of Financial Myth Busting interviews WindRock Wealth Management about the investment repercussions from the meltdown in the Chinese stock markets and the slowing Chinese economy.  Topics include: why the Chinese government has reacted so strongly; how U.S. interest rates may be affected due to sales of U.S. Treasuries by China; why lower demand from China for oil, coupled with increased American production, can raise U.S. interest rates; and what increased U.S. interest rates may mean for the budget of the U.S. government.?  August 2015.




Additional Info

WindRock interviews famed geopolitical analyst Richard Maybury of The Early Warning Report about the latest developments in the Ukraine and their historical context.  April 2014.

Additional Info

Geopolitics: Risks and Opportunities for Your Portfolio

Published in Podcasts
Wednesday, 11 December 2013

Geopolitics studies the effect geography and economics have on the relations between nations.  These relationships, and their constantly changing dynamics, can powerfully influence investment returns.  WindRock interviews world-renowned geopolitical analyst Richard Maybury of the U.S. & World Early Warning Report (www.chaostan.com) about current and prospective geopolitical events.  October 2013.

Additional Info