WindRock - Displaying items by tag: Geopolitical Events
Why Hong Kong Matters: an Interview with Eric Margolis
Since March of this year, Hong Kong has experienced massive and widespread protests – at one point, an estimated two million citizens marched in the streets (which is over a quarter of the population). Largely due to its continuing nature, the protests have been underreported by mainstream media despite their potentially dramatic worldwide impact.
WindRock interviews Eric Margolis, award-winning syndicated columnist and war correspondent. Mr. Margolis discusses:
- Why the protests are likely to continue;
- How Chinese leadership will likely react;
- What the repercussions will be for Sino-American relations, specifically:
- Trade negotiations
- North Korean containment
- Territorial disputes
- Overall general security; and
- Why the protests are a real threat to China’s economy and the worldwide banking system.
December, 2019
WindRock interviews Eric Margolis, award-winning syndicated columnist and war correspondent. Mr. Margolis discusses:
- Why the Turks are slowly releasing evidence;
- How this may affect the viability of Saudi Arabia’s current de facto ruler, the crown prince;
- Why Saudi Arabia’s regime appears to receive unconditional support from the U.S.;
- What is the likelihood of a future U.S.-Saudi war with Iran.
December, 2018
Flashpoints: War with North Korea and Rebellion in Saudi Arabia
Conflict Potential in Syria, North Korea, and the South China Sea
Could any of these geopolitical hot spots result in war?
WindRock interviews Eric Margolis, award-winning syndicated columnist and war correspondent. Mr. Margolis discusses: how the U.S. contributed to the Syrian civil war and its current policy predicament; what the U.S. can do to de-escalate tensions with North Korea and counter their rising threat; and why China aggressively asserts its claims on the South China Sea. April 2017.
Based on the torrent of emailed “analyses” we have received, wealth managers appear to have universally recommended inaction both before (because they did not expect it) and after Brexit (because they did not know what to do). Despite one of the greatest one-day worldwide equity market selloffs in history, their advice was to take no action. Apparently, no matter what the event or the depths to which equity indices sink, their advice has always been the same: stay the course. The strategy of holding positions in the hope of eventually recouping losses has worked. But hope is not a plan, and one day, hope will run out.
Unlike most previous financial crises, the Brexit saga arrives in an era of systemic risks across world economies and financial markets. With systemic risk, the idea of “diversifying” across equity markets for protection fails as investors flee most markets during severe turmoil. And given the unbridled expansion of debt and money since the 2008 financial crisis, we believe systemic risks abound.
Will Brexit be the catalyst to unleash such systemic risks and drive down worldwide equity markets? We do not know, but it is possible. With equity valuations in the developing world near record-high levels, stock market analyst John Hussman believes a negative change to investor sentiment alone may trigger a downturn. Many other experts likewise believe Brexit marks an important psychological turning point:
This is the worst period I recall since I’ve been in public service. There’s nothing like it, including the crisis. (recalling the stock market “Black Monday” crash in 1987)
- Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve Chairman
This is big because it’s at the time when the central banks have lost their power . . . It’s the beginning of the end of central bank power and it’s the beginning of the end of the European Union.
- Gerald Celente, publisher of the Trends Journal
There’s a bear market in confidence in market manipulators, policy makers, central bankers and politicians broadly. There’s a bear market in confidence in planning.
- Jeff Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer of Doubleline Capital
Investors may be able to protect themselves from systemic risk by owning investments which fundamentally differ from traditional equities. Investments such as farmland, residential rental real estate, secured private lending, and precious metals may not only protect the value of portfolios, but may also allow investors to profit from financial crises. Even long-term U.S. Treasury bonds may help (temporarily) as investors seek “safe havens.” The year-to-date financial performance of some of these investment categories is especially insightful (through June 28, 2016 according to Morningstar).
If Brexit does not act as a catalyst, plenty of other events may trigger a worldwide, severe, and prolonged downturn in financial markets. It could be the collapse of a European bank, a recession in the U.S., or a currency crisis in Asia. It could be these, or to quote former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, one of many “unknown unknowns.” It is difficult to predict which snowflake starts the avalanche.
We admit we did not foresee Britain leaving the European Union, but it did not matter as WindRock builds portfolios to withstand systemic risk regardless as to the catalyst. Given today’s world of insignificant or negative interest rates, record debt levels, and unprecedented money printing, all investors should consider systemic risk and, unlike the advice of some wealth managers, take action.
The Real Danger to U.S. Investors from the China Meltdown
Dawn Bennett of Financial Myth Busting interviews WindRock Wealth Management about the investment repercussions from the meltdown in the Chinese stock markets and the slowing Chinese economy. Topics include: why the Chinese government has reacted so strongly; how U.S. interest rates may be affected due to sales of U.S. Treasuries by China; why lower demand from China for oil, coupled with increased American production, can raise U.S. interest rates; and what increased U.S. interest rates may mean for the budget of the U.S. government.? August 2015.
WindRock Interviews Richard Maybury on the Ukraine Situation
WindRock interviews famed geopolitical analyst Richard Maybury of The Early Warning Report about the latest developments in the Ukraine and their historical context. April 2014.
