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Our firm collects nonpublic information about client and consumers. We will not share nonpublic information about clients or consumers with third parties not affiliated with our firm, except as noted below:

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WindRock Wealth Management, LLC 29 South Webster Street, Suite 350 Naperville, IL 60540

Politicians frequently blame inflation on greedy corporations, commodity or energy price increases, or on an “overheated” economy (a Keynesian concept).  However, prices should remain relatively stable as long as the amount of money in the system remains constant.  That is because an increase in one good means there is less money to spend, or less demand, for another good, thereby causing the price of the second good to fall.  Thus, the net effects will leave the general price level unchanged.

Such red herrings for inflation as “overheated” economies avoid the central fact: that money, like any other good, has a price set by supply and demand. So, what actually causes rising prices?    Milton Friedman correctly observed that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”  Since the demand for money does not typically change significantly, it must be money printing and the increase in supply of money itself that causes prices to rise.

In the United States, money creation is caused by both the Federal Reserve and the fractional reserve banking system.  Since its inception a century ago, The Federal Reserve has been increasing the money supply.  Banks further leverage this money supply by lending more money than they have in deposits.  The word “fractional” in fractional reserve means banks hold only a fraction of what can be demanded from them at any given time.

In the U.S., the last several years have witnessed a never before seen expansion of the money supply.  Although the timing of the emergence of price inflation can only be estimated, the correlation with money supply growth is indisputable.

Economic fluctuations have existed throughout history (e.g., a failed crop or a technological innovation which disrupts a particular industry), but such fluctuations were not cyclical until the 19th century.  Unfortunately, these business cycles coincided with the Industrial Revolution, and hence capitalism was blamed.  But that century birthed another institution: central banking.  Which is responsible for business cycles? 

To be viable, a business cycle theory needs to explain three phenomena which are always observed:

• The cluster of error in judgment by businesses.  Why do successful businesses, having survived their competitors by better planning for the future, suddenly suffer losses en masse?
• The greater cyclicality experienced by industries producing capital goods (e.g., construction, machinery & equipment, etc.) relative to that of consumer-goods industries (e.g., food, pharmaceuticals, etc.)  Why do companies in the capital-goods industries perform better (during the “boom” of a business cycle) and then worse (during a recession) than companies in the consumer-goods industries?
• The rise and then fall in the money supply.  Why does every “boom” period of the business cycle shadow an increase in the supply of money while there is sometimes (but not always) a reduction in the supply of money during a recession?

To explain these, the Austrian theory depicts a typical business cycle as follows:  In the beginning, the government increases the supply of money, which artificially decreases interest rates.  Interest rates are a universal market signal to all businesses, so suddenly investments which previously appeared unprofitable now make economic sense.  However, the attractiveness of these projects is a mirage.  These borrowed funds are actually being “malinvested” given the “true” level of interest rates absent the artificial stimulus.  As investments in the capital-goods industry projects are the longest dated, they are the most sensitive to changes in interest rates.  This makes them the most prone to downturns. 

As the central banks continue to increase the money supply, they eventually risk significant inflation or a financially unstable banking system.  At this point, the central bank may choose to limit their money printing, triggering an ensuing downturn and disruptive liquidation of the malinvestments made on the premise of artificially low interest rates.  This is known as a recession.  Recessions, while they may be postponed, cannot be avoided.  As Ludwig von Mises wrote:

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.  The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

To “fix” or “stop” a recession, central banks return to printing more money, sowing the seeds of the next boom and bust cycle.   The Austrian theory of the business cycle thereby explains the cyclical nature of economic fluctuations.  It also describes causes for the three phenomena observed in every cycle.  Finally, the theory accounts for the historical timing of business cycles.  Specifically, why they primarily originated in the 19^th century and have become more pronounced in the U.S. since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

Investors have been living in a world of increasing booms and busts as central banks continue to manipulate the system.  However, today the stakes are much higher.  The amount of money printed since the 2008 downturn makes this next recession even more dangerous for investors.

We offer an array of investment solutions for clients ranging from high net-worth investors to family offices and foundations.  Wealth management includes both the holistic management of an entire portfolio as well as management of individual components including:  Hard Assets, Financial Assets (Global Equities and Bonds, including Tactical Strategies) and Unique Private Opportunities.  Unique Private Opportunities are offered through our strategic alliance with Iridius Capital as well as through other private investment firms and family offices.  Our clients also benefit from access to our network of third-party service providers.

Blog The Fourth of July Resolved, That these United Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States, that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain is, and ought to be, totally dissolved. -          Richard Henry Lee, June 7, 1776 This proposal was adopted by the Second Continental Congress on July 2, 1776.  So technically speaking, July 2nd is America’s true Independence Day . . . Read More		Gold, Government, and a Game Plan
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All content and matters discussed are for information purposes only. Opinions expressed herein are solely those of WindRock Wealth Management LLC and our staff. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and ideas should be discussed in detail with your individual adviser prior to implementation. Fee-based investment advisory services are offered by WindRock Wealth Management LLC, an SEC-Registered Investment Advisor. The presence of this presentation shall in no way be construed or interpreted as a solicitation to sell or offer to sell investment advisory services except, where applicable, in states where we are registered or where an exemption or exclusion from such registration exists. WindRock Wealth Management may have a material interest in some or all of the investment topics discussed. Nothing should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance. There are no warranties, expresses or implied, as to accuracy, completeness or results obtained from any information contained herein. You may not modify this content for any other purposes without express written consent.

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Since August 15, 1971, we have been living in a unique time period in history. On that day, the United States terminated the ability of foreign governments to convert their dollars into gold.  This action severed the last links of currency to any backing by precious metals which had been the case for much of human history.

The impact has been dramatic. Without needing gold to back the value of the currency, central banks could now create money without constraint, facilitating proliferate government spending and borrowing by serving as a “buyer of last resort” for debt. It has brought us to the point where, today:

• “Official” federal debt stands at approximately $17 trillion which exceeds the economy’s annual production of goods and services (Gross Domestic Product or GDP).
• This “official” federal debt excludes many federal unfunded liabilities (including pensions, healthcare and Social Security) with low end projections estimated at $70 trillion.
• Together, total U.S. federal liabilities equal a staggering $87 Trillion or over 5 times GDP.
• This gross overspending is not slowing down. Nearly all U.S. tax revenue is consumed by entitlement programs.  Expenditures for all discretionary programs, including defense, are borrowed.
• In addition, annual deficits continue to multiply at an alarming pace. In 2012 alone, under standard accounting practices, federal liabilities grew by $6.6. trillion (equal to 42% of that year’s GDP).

Even with talk of tax revenue increases or cost cutting, the U.S. national debt, like that of many countries, can never be repaid.  Nor can the economy “outgrow” these debt levels. Ultimately, the governments will repay debt with their last remaining option – printing more money.  As money floods the system, this will drive inflation higher even with continued weakness in the economy. 

We foresee dramatic changes which, if investors are properly prepared, will allow them to prosper.  However, portfolios must be immediately positioned for two major challenges ahead:

1.  Finding satisfactory returns in an increasingly return-starved world.   
2.  Preserving the purchasing power of wealth in light of the coming inflation.

We fear that most investors with a static mix of stocks and bonds will see their portfolio worth significantly less in the years ahead, diminished by the ravaging effects of inflation. To learn how we build portfolios for clients to address these challenges, additional information can be found here. For more insight on the state of the world, view our featured video: Gold, Government and a Game Plan.