What if This Time is Different?

What if This Time is Different?What if, before the world ever heard of coronavirus, every valuation multiple suggested the U.S. stock market was one of the most expensive in history? What if these valuations assumed – and required – continued economic growth, robust increases in company earnings, and sustained and substantial stock buybacks? What if […]

When Euphoria Turns to Phoria

Are the financial markets in a current state of euphoria with a commensurate risk of a market downturn? Various metrics strongly indicate as such.

Winter is Coming

Fans of HBO’s hit series, Game of Thrones, know well the motto of House Stark: “Winter is Coming.”

The Kitchen Sink

April, 2020 By late January, the die was cast: the virus had a name, it had reached our shores, travel screenings and restrictions were in place, and while not yet declared a pandemic, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern.” Yet complacency reigned within financial markets. The stock market […]

The Tariffying Prospect of a Trade War

If the trade war escalates, can it directly cause a U.S economic recession? Many mainstream pundits, citing the infamous Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, warn as such.

Irrational Complacency

complacency (noun): a feeling of quiet pleasure or security, often while unaware of some potential danger, defect, or the like.

Defense Wins Games

Football fans always get excited about offensive prowess, but they also know that when it counts, it is the defense that wins games.

The Long and Short of It

Combined with an extremely uncertain and potentially deteriorating economic situation, current equity valuations suggest this stock market is one of the most overvalued – and therefore potentially dangerous – in history.