The U.S. Stock Market: Interest Rate and Recession Risks

Eight Predictions for 2025

How to Listen When the Market Speaks

Election 2024: Trump Trades and Harris Hedges

Echoes of 1974

Each year brings investors a fresh list of hopes and fears. Often, mainstream financial firms provide guidance that extrapolates linear thinking into the future. We prefer to take a more cyclical view of the world to glean knowledge from patterns in past cycles that rhyme with today. With that in mind, we set our […]
What if This Time is Different?

What if This Time is Different?What if, before the world ever heard of coronavirus, every valuation multiple suggested the U.S. stock market was one of the most expensive in history? What if these valuations assumed – and required – continued economic growth, robust increases in company earnings, and sustained and substantial stock buybacks? What if […]
When Euphoria Turns to Phoria

Are the financial markets in a current state of euphoria with a commensurate risk of a market downturn? Various metrics strongly indicate as such.
And the Election Winner is … Inflation in a Landslide!

Regardless as to which candidate secures the Presidency on November 3rd (or some subsequent date), the administration must cope with unprecedented federal debt.
Winter is Coming

Fans of HBO’s hit series, Game of Thrones, know well the motto of House Stark: “Winter is Coming.”
What Stops the Stock Market Rally?

In terms of magnitude and shortness of time, the stock market rally since its March lows has been unparalleled.